China consumes 40-50% of the global aluminum supply each year. Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in July contracts eased by 25 paise, or 0.18 per cent, to Rs 136.50 per kg in a business turnover of 810 lots. Parallel with new types of alloys new techniques of material shaping/designing are established and used. In the first nine months of 2019, China produced 26.37 million tonnes of aluminium, up 1.1% from a year earlier. Total exports of unwrought aluminum, including primary metal, alloy and semis, were 5.8 million tonnes last year, up 21 percent on 2017. more information Accept. Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. But output dropped 2.77% month-on-month. What’s more, a large part of stocks is being kept in unregistered (non-LME) warehouses, which means availability is still ample. All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium price will maintain its upward momentum in the first half of 2021 due to strong demand before trending gradually lower in the second half of the year on increased supply, market participants and analysts told Fastmarkets. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. Demand for automotive vehicles, which are increasingly aluminum intensive, power transmission investment, housing development and electrical appliances create aluminum demand. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. The dispute over tariffs is continuing to impact markets across several asset classes, from equities to agriculture and metals. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. As well as a five-year view, we also provide a 25-year forecast for aluminium supply, demand and prices. Production of primary aluminium stood at 4.109 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year. For instance, reports on mining operations 4 in India have indicated that despite relevant businesses being deemed “essential” (and thus allowed to remain open during lockdowns), activity is slowing down significantly. ET Understand how the bond market moved back to its normal trading range, despite historic levels of volatility. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. Within the BRIC economies, the growth of Indian demand has been a key contributor to growth. Search our directory for a broker that fits your needs. Any slowing in the Chinese economy will make it harder to absorb the vast amount of aluminum being mined each year. The Chinese economy, the world’s second largest after the United States, is already beginning to slow under the burden of high debt levels and collapsing emerging market currencies (Figure 4). 2021 PREVIEW: Demand growth to support SHFE aluminium price in H1 but surplus weighs China churned out 2.90 million tonnes of the metal last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said, down 2.5% from 2.973 million tonnes in August. Demand from flat steel users has been particularly strong - for example, refrigerator production rose by 25.8% year-on-year. Shanghai aluminium prices are currently hovering around the 14,000 yuan ($1,980) a tonne mark often considered a break-even price for Chinese smelters, while spot aluminium premiums exceeded 100 yuan/t. Investors don’t seem to think that the Administration is likely to change its tariff policy soon. The global market is due to flip into a surplus of 304,000 tonnes next year from a deficit of 658,500 tonnes in 2019, according to the consensus numbers. “With primary aluminum demand expected to fall 13% in the U.S. in 2020, a response from one of the major producers was what the market needed,” said Doug Hilderhoff, an analyst at CRU Group. The premium for aluminium billets in Europe is holding onto the US$ 300 per tonne level, while in the United States, it fell to a record low on October 25, reflecting billet producers’ continued struggle to sell spot billets to extruders. Other than nickel and lead, base metal prices have been trading lower this year, with aluminium the second worst performer, and tin last. © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. The growing volume of recycled aluminum may help reduce the imbalance of supply and demand in the aluminum industry. Prior to the tariffs, U.S. prices were about 10% higher than the global average. He is also one of CME Group’s spokespeople on global economic, financial and geopolitical conditions. Mostar signed a five-year deal this week with British-Swiss firm Glencore plc for the supply... Russian Federation aluminium giant UC Rusal announced yesterday that it has received an A- rating in its first-ever assessment by... Base metals prices reacted positively to the progress registered in the latest round of US – China trade talks in mid-October, but the markets remained cautious about the prospects for a final agreement. 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